Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e93…2883 politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$1
sports 19% −$3
other 9% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 20 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage117d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 28 $88 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $91 −$2 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $91 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $184 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $92 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $92 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $88 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $88 16h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $88 16d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $88 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $88 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $88 30d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $88 40d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $91 41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $91 43d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $90 43d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $90 45d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $90 46d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $90 54d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $91 54d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $92 71d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 72d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 72d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 75d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 76d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $92 78d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $92 78d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $92 82d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $92 83d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 87d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 88d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $92 97d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $92 97d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 101d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 101d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records