Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e95…1cce world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% $0
politics 23% $0
other 17% −$8
sports 13% −$4
economics 6% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 28 +64.3% +48.6% 29% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 70 +25.6% +13.6% 30% 3% -9.6%
all 81 +19.7% +8.3% 32% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 5% -9.9%
10% -2.1% 4% -18.5%
15% -11.6% 4% -26.4%
20% -20.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 55
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage528d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $58 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $42 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $51 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $43 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $53 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $32 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $85 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $56 +$2 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $99 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $2 $0 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $134 −$4 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $66 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $86 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $95 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $21 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $16 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $42 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $41 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $42 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $27 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.16 · official $48.23 (match) · 351 history records