Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e97…8ffa sports 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-1%) realized −$85 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate52%80W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$517
14 days−$654
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$143
other 13% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 26% -21.0%
≤30d 153 +11.7% +1.0% 52% 27% -11.5%
≤90d 153 +11.7% +1.0% 52% 27% -11.5%
all 153 +11.7% +1.0% 52% 27% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 27% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 19% -20.0%
15% -17.5% 16% -27.7%
20% -25.6% 10% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses80 / 73
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions3
Markets (closed)153 / 156
History coverage28d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 3.5 Under 89¢ 72¢ $86 $70 −$16 (-19%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-96%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $185 +$6 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$12 -58%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +20%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22 +$2 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$4 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$10 +40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +139%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $92 −$92 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $220 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $263 +$8 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $28 +$14 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $300 −$31 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$5 -5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $711 −$51 -7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $452 +$63 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $300 +$33 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $189 +$2 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $45 +$50 +110%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $41 −$23 -57%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $125 +$4 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $98 −$96 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $25 −$6 -25%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $105 +$29 +27%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $125 +$6 +4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $50 +$14 +28%
Fortaleza EC leading at halftime? Jun 10 $30 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -97%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 3¢ $27 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3¢ $10 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $10 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $10 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $3 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3¢ $3 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3¢ $3 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 4¢ $4 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3¢ $3 46m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 2¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 45¢ $24 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $29 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 86¢ $163 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $14 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $66 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $57 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $53 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 11¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 11¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 1¢ $8 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 2¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.90 · official $70.99 · 1084 history records