Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0E 0x0e98…5f4e sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$165 (+17%) realized +$166 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$57
14 days+$161
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$158
other 43% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +52.6% +38.1% 60% 60% +9.9%
≤30d 26 +34.9% +22.1% 58% 58% +6.0%
≤90d 26 +34.9% +22.1% 58% 58% +6.0%
all 26 +34.9% +22.1% 58% 58% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.1% 58% +6.0%
10% +10.4% 58% -4.1%
15% -0.3% 58% -13.4%
20% -10.1% 58% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$32 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage20d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 60¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $31 +$31 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $32 +$30 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$29 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$36 +238%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$27 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 +$54 +262%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $31 +$30 +97%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $31 +$30 +97%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $21 +$26 +121%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $53 −$52 -98%
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $53 −$4 -7%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $56 +$46 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $83 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $41 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $31 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $20 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $32 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 5d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $32 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $25 8d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 45¢ $38 10d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $85 12d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 12d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $51 12d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $62 12d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $31 13d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 13d
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $62 13d
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $31 14d
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $21 15d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 48¢ $53 15d
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $49 15d
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $53 15d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 15d
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 17d
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $53 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.33 · official $81.33 (match) · 52 history records