Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e98…e39a crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$19 (-12%) realized −$13 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$19
other 21% −$15
finance 19% −$5
sports 8% +$40
economics 3% −$5
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +228.0% +196.8% 50% 50% +69.8%
≤30d 6 +228.0% +196.8% 50% 50% +69.8%
≤90d 20 +52.2% +37.7% 40% 40% -6.9%
all 25 +34.2% +21.4% 36% 36% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.4% 36% -10.4%
10% +9.8% 36% -18.9%
15% -0.8% 36% -26.8%
20% -10.5% 36% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage162d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes $29 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$15 +480%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o Jun 15 $2 +$20 +961%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 30 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 30 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? Apr 29 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 28 $5 +$6 +123%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye Jan 06 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes $9 12m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes $30 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o SELL 85¢ $22 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o BUY $2 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? BUY Yes $2 49d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $4 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? BUY Yes $15 49d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 50d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $1 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.50 · official $32.50 (match) · 47 history records