Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0e99…994e crypto 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$7,089 (+38%) realized +$7,161 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%12W / 74L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$88
30 days−$3,777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$1,784
world 37% +$11,225
politics 19% −$2,622
finance 2% +$150
other 2% −$192
sports 1% +$11
economics 0% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 61 -7.8% -16.6% 11% 8% -45.0%
≤90d 71 -13.9% -22.1% 11% 8% -51.6%
all 86 +1.0% -8.6% 14% 12% +23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 12% +23.4%
10% -17.3% 12% +11.6%
15% -25.3% 12% +0.8%
20% -32.6% 12% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +97% → late -95% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,628 vs −$173 · ×9.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$7,161
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage339d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? No 2¢ 2¢ $65 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? No 10¢ 5¢ $76 $38 −$38 (-50%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? No 4¢ 1¢ $46 $13 −$33 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 09 $94 −$88 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $55 −$52 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $73 −$69 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 05 $15 −$14 -94%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $245 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 5? Jun 04 $260 −$260 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $221 −$194 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 2? Jun 04 $194 −$194 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $607 −$566 -93%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $505 −$395 -78%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $532 −$351 -66%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? Jun 04 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? Jun 04 $119 −$119 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? Jun 04 $147 −$147 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? Jun 04 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 6? Jun 04 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 7? Jun 04 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 9? Jun 04 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 13? Jun 04 $123 −$123 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 1? Jun 04 $299 −$299 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? Jun 04 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 8? Jun 04 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 12? Jun 04 $365 −$365 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 04 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 6? Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 8? Jun 04 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? Jun 04 $220 −$220 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? Jun 04 $139 −$139 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 16? Jun 04 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Jun 04 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 6? Jun 04 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 13? Jun 04 $319 −$319 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $140 −$87 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 3? Jun 04 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Jun 04 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 4? Jun 04 $221 −$221 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 13? Jun 04 $304 −$304 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Jun 04 $200 −$200 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $42 −$6 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 04 $92 −$62 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $123 −$106 -86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 03 $48 +$4 +8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $60 −$44 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No 4¢ $49 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY No 2¢ $16 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 10¢ $81 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY No 2¢ $53 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? BUY No 5¢ $94 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY No 7¢ $55 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY No 11¢ $73 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 16d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs SELL ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 51¢ $82 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs SELL ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 51¢ $7 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs SELL ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 51¢ $34 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs SELL ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 51¢ $5 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs SELL UCAM Esports Club 52¢ $128 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 42¢ $3 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 42¢ $4 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 42¢ $11 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 42¢ $87 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 56¢ $130 17d
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 56¢ $10 17d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? SELL Up 37¢ $36 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 17d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 42¢ $42 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $52 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 7¢ $73 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? SELL No 17¢ $16 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? SELL No 75¢ $37 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.88 · official $130.88 (match) · 562 history records