Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0e9c…e126 world 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$4
other 15% +$1
finance 2% $0
sports 1% −$2
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.9% -12.1% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 25 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 34 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 3% -9.4%
all 45 +2.0% -7.7% 44% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage540d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $113 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $33 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $45 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $4 −$1 -14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $212 +$3 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $73 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $70 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $78 +$3 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $80 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $8 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $6 $0 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $14 +$4 +31%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $34 −$5 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $524 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $266 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $522 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $292 +$2 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? May 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania Apr 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $6 $0 +0%
Oregon State vs. Portland Mar 03 $2 +$5 +300%
Florida State vs. Wake Forest Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $2 6m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $55 6m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $57 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $15 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $15 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $56 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $56 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $33 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $22 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $23 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 197 history records