Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0e9e…1b5a other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$14
politics 14% −$3
economics 6% −$1
sports 3% −$17
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.3% -22.5% 14% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.2% 12% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 103 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 6% -9.7%
all 105 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 95
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage93d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 49¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $329 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $365 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $327 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $314 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $321 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $167 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $169 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $337 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $325 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $313 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $171 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $344 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $159 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $325 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $320 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $350 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $163 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 2h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $10 5d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $9 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $84 8d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $23 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $23 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 18d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 18d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.10 · official $144.10 (match) · 313 history records