Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0ea0…0aec crypto 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-10%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$196
14 days−$196
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$157
other 7% −$23
sports 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -32.9% -39.3% 30% 28% -45.6%
≤30d 40 -32.9% -39.3% 30% 28% -45.6%
≤90d 94 -16.1% -24.1% 39% 37% -29.1%
all 94 -16.1% -24.1% 39% 37% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 37% -29.1%
10% -31.4% 36% -35.9%
15% -38.0% 30% -42.1%
20% -44.1% 27% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)94 / 98
History coverage44d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$33 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$14 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +90%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $3 +$4 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 19 $2 +$2 +86%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 15 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $21 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 5m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.86 · official $38.79 · 250 history records