Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0ea6…180d crypto 1025 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 142d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$787 (-1%) realized −$759 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate46%472W / 552L
Whale WR19%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$2,405est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$212
7 days−$406
14 days−$406
30 days+$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$208
crypto 11% −$218
other 5% −$118
politics 1% −$91
economics 0% −$21
tech 0% −$42
world 0% −$7
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.3% -14.3% 19% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 66 -2.3% -11.6% 26% 2% -8.7%
≤90d 160 -7.8% -16.5% 12% 1% -10.0%
all 1024 -7.1% -15.9% 46% 21% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 21% -10.1%
10% -24.0% 19% -18.7%
15% -31.3% 17% -26.6%
20% -38.0% 13% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 19% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$1,018
Realized−$759
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses472 / 552
Whale WR (big bets)19%
Est. fees paid−$2,405
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1024 / 1025
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners Over 57¢ 56¢ $1,045 $1,018 −$28 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $295 +$2 +1%
Uzbekistan to win the second half? Jun 27 $61 −$14 -23%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $1,298 −$25 -2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $382 −$9 -2%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 26 $1,592 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 26 $837 −$36 -4%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1,078 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $1,470 −$42 -3%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Bald (+1.5) Jun 26 $183 −$3 -2%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1,330 −$25 -2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1,925 −$71 -4%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $1,666 +$49 +3%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,960 −$28 -2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $1,059 +$14 +1%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $356 −$24 -7%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 25 $131 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,356 −$27 -1%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $1,748 −$64 -4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2,014 −$66 -3%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $55 −$39 -72%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 22 $270 $0 +0%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $490 −$17 -4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,106 −$22 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $900 −$159 -18%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $2,448 +$191 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $464 +$10 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $309 +$8 +3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,944 +$72 +4%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1,542 −$7 -0%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $6 $0 -3%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $217 −$5 -2%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $260 −$10 -4%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $25 −$17 -68%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $850 −$25 -3%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $1,100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $182 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,925 $0 +0%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,100 −$84 -4%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,225 +$25 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,320 +$17 +1%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,960 −$17 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3,080 +$40 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $510 −$18 -3%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $500 −$37 -7%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,225 +$1,275 +104%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,075 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $156 −$9 -6%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $525 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1,250 −$44 -4%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $51 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $57 5m
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $5 36m
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $131 40m
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $1 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 56¢ $729 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $297 1h
Uzbekistan to win the second half? SELL Yes 16¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 52¢ $721 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 53¢ $371 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 53¢ $182 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 53¢ $1,298 2h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $295 2h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $1,995 2h
Uzbekistan to win the second half? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $336 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $4 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $31 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 43¢ $382 5h
Uzbekistan to win the second half? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 5h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 65¢ $317 14h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 14h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 14h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 65¢ $19 14h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 65¢ $23 14h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 65¢ $650 14h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 65¢ $25 14h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 65¢ $182 14h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 65¢ $325 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,017.53 · official $1,017.53 (match) · 3500 history records