Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

0E 0x0ea8…b9b0 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,505 (-83%) realized −$1,507 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%2W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$107per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$8

14 days−$8

30 days−$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-57.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-27.9%	-34.8%	25%	25%	-42.4%
≤30d	4	-27.9%	-34.8%	25%	25%	-42.4%
≤90d	4	-27.9%	-34.8%	25%	25%	-42.4%
all	16	-52.9%	-57.4%	12%	12%	-86.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-57.4%	12%	-86.0%
10%	-61.4%	12%	-87.3%
15%	-65.2%	12%	-88.5%
20%	-68.6%	12%	-89.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -53% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -42% → late -64% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$77 vs −$118 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.09 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage

Net worth$42

Realized−$1,507

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses2 / 14

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage170d

Avg bet$107

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5	Under	65¢	68¢	$40	$42	+$2 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$10	+188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Jan 03	$150	−$150	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Jan 03	$29	−$29	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Dec 30	$354	−$354	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Dec 30	$531	−$531	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Dec 30	$221	−$221	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30?	Dec 30	$2	−$1	-50%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Dec 30	$2	$0	-17%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Dec 30	$18	−$2	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Dec 30	$244	−$244	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Dec 30	$100	+$144	+144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Dec 29	$77	−$77	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Dec 29	$32	−$32	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5	BUY Under	65¢	$40	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$7	2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$3	3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	20¢	$3	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$5	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	34¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$100	165d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$50	165d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$29	165d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$354	170d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$450	170d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$81	170d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$18	170d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	170d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	170d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$16	170d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$203	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$67	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$33	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$16	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$84	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$44	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$244	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$100	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$77	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$14	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$18	170d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	170d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$18	170d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	170d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.95 · official $41.95 (match) · 32 history records