Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0ea8…4f33 weather 134 markets active 3h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$258 (+1%) realized +$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%134W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$175
14 days+$200
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% +$40
crypto 38% +$174
other 9% +$9
finance 8% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 2% -7.9%
≤30d 82 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 1% -8.4%
≤90d 134 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 1% -8.6%
all 134 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 1% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 1% -8.6%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses134 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage66d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $479 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $476 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $454 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $439 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $168 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $363 +$8 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $431 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $367 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $103 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $259 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $353 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $196 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $131 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $153 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $160 +$3 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $409 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $252 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $92 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $62 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $322 +$54 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $342 +$10 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $336 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $189 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $304 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $323 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $259 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $322 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $312 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $285 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $252 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $194 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $304 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $305 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $303 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $479 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $476 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $470 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $65 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $389 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $23 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $145 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $36 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $64 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $100 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $69 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $72 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $71 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 455 history records