Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0eaa…9068 sports 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$531 (+9%) realized +$362 · open +$169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%73W / 86L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$321
7 days−$90
14 days+$274
30 days+$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$394
sports 35% +$45
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 41% -12.2%
≤30d 159 +7.6% -2.6% 46% 45% -1.0%
≤90d 159 +7.6% -2.6% 46% 45% -1.0%
all 159 +7.6% -2.6% 46% 45% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 45% -1.0%
10% -11.9% 45% -10.5%
15% -20.5% 42% -19.1%
20% -28.3% 38% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2,361
Realized+$362
Unrealized+$169
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses73 / 86
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions22
Markets (closed)159 / 185
History coverage38d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $581 $726 +$145 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $502 $595 +$93 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $350 $320 −$30 (-9%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $256 $246 −$10 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $194 $157 −$37 (-19%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $65 $70 +$5 (+8%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $47 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 66¢ 74¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+13%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 37¢ 40¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 27¢ 28¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+529%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+94%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 28¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-36%)
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+102%)
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$44 +216%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $23 +$8 +34%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$48 +79%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 27 $17 −$17 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 −$19 -94%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $8 −$7 -95%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $22 −$22 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $10 −$3 -30%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $25 +$18 +70%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $25 −$24 -99%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $202 +$60 +30%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$14 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $5 +$19 +365%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $76 +$53 +70%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 26 $10 +$33 +325%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 26 $131 −$63 -48%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $7 +$10 +146%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$7 +33%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$9 -58%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -68%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -19%
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $46 +$31 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $13 2m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 0¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 66¢ $33 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 7¢ $3 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 7¢ $0 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 7¢ $1 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $13 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $9 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 13¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 27¢ $20 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $1 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $6 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $1 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 24¢ $7 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,361.46 · official $2,346.25 (match) · 443 history records