Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0eab…821b other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$13
sports 11% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 38% -6.9%
≤30d 10 +2.3% -7.4% 60% 50% -1.3%
≤90d 10 +2.3% -7.4% 60% 50% -1.3%
all 10 +2.3% -7.4% 60% 50% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 50% -1.3%
10% -16.3% 40% -10.7%
15% -24.4% 30% -19.3%
20% -31.8% 30% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage11d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? Yes $162 $161 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $34 +$7 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 +$11 +35%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 +$28 +54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$8 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 1h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $28 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 91¢ $32 3h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $7 20h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 21h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $5 22h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $1 22h
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $31 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $27 4d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $10 4d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $10 4d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $16 4d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $7 4d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $9 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 9d
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? BUY Yes $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.20 · official $162.20 (match) · 42 history records