Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eac…694f other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$12
sports 24% +$6
crypto 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 19% -10.2%
≤30d 16 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 19% -10.2%
≤90d 16 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 19% -10.2%
all 16 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 19% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 19% -10.2%
10% -15.8% 12% -18.8%
15% -24.0% 12% -26.6%
20% -31.4% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $77 −$5 -7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $38 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 −$1 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $173 −$13 -7%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $25 +$11 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 $0 -2%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +145%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $98 +$1 +1%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $43 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 55¢ $27 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 58¢ $6 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $39 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 60¢ $39 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $38 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 87¢ $38 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $38 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $30 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $38 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 72¢ $39 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $27 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 42¢ $43 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 47¢ $50 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 59¢ $50 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $48 25h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 75¢ $3 2d
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 75¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records