Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0eae…be0b other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$345 (-7%) realized −$329 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days−$99
14 days−$214
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$430
other 34% −$470
sports 13% +$176
finance 8% +$331
world 6% −$59
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 20% -28.7%
≤30d 18 +21.1% +9.6% 28% 28% -18.2%
≤90d 26 +1.2% -8.5% 27% 27% -18.6%
all 26 +1.2% -8.5% 27% 27% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 27% -18.6%
10% -17.2% 27% -26.4%
15% -25.2% 27% -33.5%
20% -32.6% 27% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$283 vs −$128 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage66d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 57¢ $73 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 10¢ $65 $49 −$16 (-25%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 25¢ 24¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $70 +$238 +339%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $112 −$64 -57%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $197 −$184 -93%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $52 +$56 +106%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $41 +$129 +316%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $94 −$67 -71%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $150 −$4 -3%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $97 +$396 +408%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $162 +$398 +246%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $182 −$21 -12%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 02 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 02 $204 −$204 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $240 −$240 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $259 −$18 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $383 +$331 +86%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $617 +$433 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $23 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $74 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $70 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $308 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $70 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes $48 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $57 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $48 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $55 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $108 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes $52 7d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes $21 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $51 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $170 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $41 7d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $28 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $13 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $146 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $146 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $195 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $67 7d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $94 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $126 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $493 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $313 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $150 9d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $559 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.63 · official $143.63 (match) · 113 history records