Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0E 0x0eaf…a88f crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%40W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$12
crypto 7% +$2
politics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 51 -1.8% -11.2% 78% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses40 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage516d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? Mar 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 03 $17 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $6,070 −$12 -0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Captain America: Brave New World' have the best domestic opening Mar 10 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Solana hit $275 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? Jan 28 $17 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $41 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 92d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 123d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 123d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 151d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 181d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $8 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $44 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $42 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $15 242d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $32 243d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 274d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $35 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY No 100¢ $27 335d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 365d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 393d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $6,058 412d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $6,070 412d
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? BUY No 100¢ $7 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.96 · official $55.96 (match) · 108 history records