Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eb5…fe1b weather 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate80%67W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$25
other 11% −$7
world 6% +$4
crypto 4% +$5
finance 3% +$9
politics 2% −$3
tech 2% +$1
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤30d 2 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤90d 6 -4.3% -13.4% 83% 67% -0.1%
all 84 +0.9% -8.7% 80% 23% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 23% -10.8%
10% -17.4% 12% -19.3%
15% -25.4% 5% -27.1%
20% -32.7% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses67 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage161d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 08 $6 +$2 +30%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $16 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 28 $14 +$2 +16%
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? Mar 17 $11 +$3 +31%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 06 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 02 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Feb 28 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on February 2 Feb 25 $6 $0 +4%
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 25 $6 $0 +6%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 18? Feb 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on February 17? Feb 18 $5 $0 +1%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 13? Feb 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 12? Feb 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 11? Feb 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on Februa Feb 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 10? Feb 10 $78 +$27 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or higher on February 10 Feb 10 $80 +$6 +8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 10? Feb 10 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 10? Feb 10 $75 −$72 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 10? Feb 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 10? Feb 10 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 9? Feb 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 9? Feb 10 $30 +$1 +3%
GPT ads by March 31? Feb 09 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on February 9? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Feb 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 09 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 8? Feb 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? Feb 09 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 9? Feb 09 $76 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Feb 09 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C or below on Febru Feb 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on February 8? Feb 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 7? Feb 08 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 7? Feb 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 6? Feb 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 6? Feb 07 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 6? Feb 06 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 92¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $26 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $10 5d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $16 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? SELL No 96¢ $16 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY No 83¢ $14 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? BUY No 77¢ $11 106d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 98¢ $4 106d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 99¢ $7 106d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 77¢ $6 111d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 114d
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 116d
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 117d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 117d
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, BUY No 88¢ $6 119d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 120d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on February 2 SELL No 100¢ $6 120d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on February 2 BUY No 96¢ $6 120d
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 120d
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 122d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 122d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 127d
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 127d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on February 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 128d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL No 100¢ $5 131d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 99¢ $5 131d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 132d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 133d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.75 · official $28.75 (match) · 255 history records