Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0eb5…32fc other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$5
world 30% −$4
crypto 7% +$1
politics 7% $0
sports 5% +$3
culture 5% $0
weather 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.9% -4.2% 50% 50% -8.0%
≤30d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 17% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 18% -10.6%
all 47 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 11% -9.1%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $10 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $32 −$6 -20%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 22 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $89 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $4 $0 +11%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 02 $3 $0 -16%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 09 $2 +$1 +22%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 08 $17 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 07 $16 $0 +3%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 27 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadi Apr 26 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 07 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 07 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 05 $1 $0 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 01 $36 $0 +0%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 30 $18 $0 -0%
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? Mar 29 $17 $0 +1%
U.S. Federal judge impeached before April? Mar 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 27? Mar 28 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 12h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $39 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $39 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $38 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $38 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $20 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $32 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $26 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $45 31d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $11 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $34 33d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $44 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $49 34d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $49 34d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $11 34d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $33 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records