Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eb7…1f17 sports 920 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$152,207 (-3%) realized −$152,061 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%361W / 590L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,052per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$69,613est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,070
7 days−$665
14 days−$8,940
30 days−$12,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$186,113
other 2% −$28,843
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -61.5% -65.2% 23% 23% -10.5%
≤30d 159 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 33% -16.2%
≤90d 704 -24.6% -31.8% 35% 33% -14.8%
all 951 -19.2% -26.9% 38% 35% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 35% -12.8%
10% -33.9% 32% -21.2%
15% ← realistic here -40.3% 26% -28.8%
20% -46.1% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$5,678) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,139 vs −$2,900 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$6,354
Realized−$152,061
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses361 / 590
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$69,613
Open positions1
Markets (closed)951 / 920
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$6,052
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 951 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Minnesota Lynx 51¢ 50¢ $6,500 $6,354 −$146 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
North Texas Mean Green vs. Temple Owls Jun 21 $218 −$218 -100%
South Dakota Coyotes vs. Denver Pioneers Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Drexel Dragons vs. Northeastern Huskies Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona Wildcats Jun 21 $471 −$471 -100%
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Fairfield Stags Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Marist Red Foxes vs. Manhattan Jaspers Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Boise State Broncos vs. Utah State Aggies Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Samford Bulldogs vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers Jun 21 $178 −$178 -100%
Texas Southern Tigers vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Eastern Washington Eagles vs. Sacramento State Hornets Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Jun 21 $41 −$70 -170%
Alabama State Hornets vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Long Beach State Beach Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Tarleton State Texans Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Detroit Titans Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
SIUE Cougars vs. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Montana Grizzlies vs. Idaho State Bengals Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Binghamton Bearcats vs. Bryant Bulldogs Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Wright State Raiders Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Morehead State Eagles vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
UT Martin Skyhawks vs. Little Rock Trojans Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Liberty Flames Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Charleston Cougars vs. North Carolina A&T Aggies Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Longwood Lancers vs. Presbyterian Blue Hose Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. San Francisco Dons Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Pacers vs. Wizards Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Drexel Dragons vs. Stony Brook Seawolves Jun 21 $150 −$368 -246%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 21 $1,217 +$777 +64%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $1,588 +$771 +48%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Jun 20 $3,038 −$3,000 -99%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) Jun 20 $1,421 −$1,400 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 20 $707 +$452 +64%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $3,545 +$2,214 +62%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $6,644 +$3,003 +45%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 19 $3,651 −$3,600 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,014 +$720 +71%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $1,014 +$890 +88%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) Jun 18 $3,543 +$2,350 +66%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $2,233 +$2,143 +96%
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) Jun 18 $1,317 −$1,300 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 18 $1,921 −$1,900 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $1,319 −$1,300 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5) Jun 16 $562 +$179 +32%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $622 +$436 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 51¢ $6,596 34m
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) SELL Las Vegas Aces 87¢ $800 40m
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) SELL Las Vegas Aces 87¢ $749 41m
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) SELL Las Vegas Aces 85¢ $446 41m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 92¢ $2,359 42m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $202 1h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 58¢ $71 1h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $101 1h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $202 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 51¢ $203 1h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 62¢ $1,011 1h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $1,014 1h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Dallas Wings 58¢ $3,038 21h
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 49¢ $508 25h
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 49¢ $914 25h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $1,160 26h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 99¢ $200 26h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 96¢ $3,004 26h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 88¢ $2,755 26h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 44¢ $508 28h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 43¢ $509 28h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 52¢ $507 28h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 63¢ $2,528 28h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 1¢ $15 41h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 6¢ $154 41h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 78¢ $4,803 41h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 79¢ $4,829 41h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 37¢ $509 42h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $406 42h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 39¢ $509 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,354.12 · official $6,354.12 (match) · 3500 history records