Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0eb9…1438 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%54W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$14
other 20% +$10
politics 12% +$14
tech 7% +$1
finance 3% +$1
world 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 57 -2.5% -11.7% 95% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -9.1%
10% -20.2% 2% -17.8%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.13 per $1 lost it wins $5.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses54 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage549d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $165 $165 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $150 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $140 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 18? May 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $130 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 14 $195 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 23 $188 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 3 to Apri Apr 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr Apr 17 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Apr 07 $30 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in March? Apr 07 $35 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar Apr 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 07 $300 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 01 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on February 4? Feb 08 $230 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 02 $135 +$1 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $10 +$3 +29%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 02 $270 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 21 $155 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 05 $155 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 05 $265 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 15? Dec 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on November 15? Dec 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on November 15? Dec 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 15? Dec 05 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4,900 on October 9? Nov 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $130,000 on October 9? Nov 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 14 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 09 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 560 and 579 times September 5–12? Oct 09 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22? Sep 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4800 and $4900 on August 20? Sep 09 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 13? Aug 20 $400 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25? Aug 13 $48 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 13 $355 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 19 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? Jul 19 $130 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 19 $145 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 06 $235 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $288 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $165 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $150 18d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $150 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $123 18d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 32d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $140 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $198 42d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $80 42d
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 42d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 42d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $150 63d
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $195 63d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $89 69d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr BUY No 100¢ $188 69d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 31 to Apr BUY No 100¢ $200 79d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April BUY No 99¢ $110 79d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 3 to Apri BUY No 100¢ $100 79d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar BUY No 99¢ $30 94d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 17 to Mar BUY No 100¢ $47 94d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in March? BUY No 99¢ $35 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $300 116d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 136d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $180 143d
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $230 143d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $136 143d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $135 154d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 99¢ $270 171d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $155 171d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $10 171d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $265 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.18 · official $288.19 (match) · 116 history records