Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eb9…bb3c crypto 467 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,919 (-4%) realized −$2,106 · open +$187
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%171W / 284L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days−$655
14 days−$685
30 days−$1,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$37
sports 28% −$4,011
crypto 19% −$1,347
world 11% +$3,753
finance 2% −$556
politics 1% −$124
culture 0% −$23
tech 0% −$19
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +9.2% -1.2% 52% 44% -24.3%
≤30d 88 +9.0% -1.3% 43% 39% -24.3%
≤90d 298 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 35% -23.2%
all 455 -2.8% -12.1% 38% 34% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 34% -16.3%
10% -20.5% 29% -24.3%
15% -28.2% 26% -31.6%
20% -35.2% 21% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$45 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$2,115
Realized−$2,106
Unrealized+$187
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses171 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions5
Markets (closed)455 / 467
History coverage153d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,179 $1,354 +$175 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $665 $683 +$17 (+3%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$6 -76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$136 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +273%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,997 −$23 -1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end Jun 15 $10 +$30 +293%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$21 +42%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $27 +$2 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $44 +$8 +18%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 +$9 +37%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 14 $63 −$60 -96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$72 +71%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $46 −$45 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $60 +$39 +65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,396 −$774 -56%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -14%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -13%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $4 +$2 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 +$2 +197%
Spread: Israel (-1.5) Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Israel (-2.5) Jun 04 $43 −$43 -100%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $20 +$21 +104%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $60 −$44 -73%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $2 +$3 +104%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $32 −$13 -40%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,290 −$61 -5%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $83 −$16 -19%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 02 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $33 +$15 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $71 −$38 -54%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $102 −$53 -52%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? May 30 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY 21¢ $51 6m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $7 15m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Portuga BUY 15¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Portuga BUY 40¢ $20 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $8 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 24¢ $237 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $79 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $21 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $6 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $682 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $3 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $2 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,974 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $3 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND France vs BUY 17¢ $2 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) AND Belgiu BUY 23¢ $1 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 40¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 16¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $173 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $237 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,114.80 · official $2,164.80 · 2553 history records