Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0eba…cb3d sports 398 markets active 3h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%186W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$17
14 days+$110
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$69
crypto 27% −$57
weather 8% −$77
other 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +1.3% -8.4% 58% 58% -7.6%
≤30d 395 -13.3% -21.5% 47% 46% -10.9%
≤90d 396 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 46% -10.9%
all 396 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 46% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 46% -10.9%
10% -29.2% 44% -19.4%
15% -36.0% 41% -27.2%
20% -42.3% 33% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses186 / 210
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)396 / 398
History coverage30d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SPARTA 51¢ 50¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $31 −$2 -5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $22 +$10 +44%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $22 −$21 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +92%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 +$5 +50%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $22 +$7 +33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$8 +67%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $22 +$11 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +140%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$11 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $22 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +140%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 +$11 +93%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $11 +$12 +103%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 +$12 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$16 +158%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $22 +$19 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $22 +$14 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $12 +$5 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $22 +$13 +60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 50¢ $12 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 51¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 51¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 49¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 53¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 53¢ $12 4h
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 2 Winner BUY So:sweet 39¢ $9 7h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 40¢ $9 10h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $10 11h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $12 12h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $12 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $10 30h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 33h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 36¢ $9 33h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 39h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $10 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $9 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 46h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 55¢ $10 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.69 · official $39.69 (match) · 709 history records