Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0ec1…dfdd crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+1%) realized +$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%28W / 1L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,109per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$46
other 4% +$123
weather 1% $0
world 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 4 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤90d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
all 29 +1.0% -8.6% 97% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,255) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×1215.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34043.14 per $1 lost it wins $34043.14
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses28 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage190d
Avg bet$1,109
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 15°C or below on May 10 May 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on April 28? May 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 22? Apr 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on Marc Mar 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February Mar 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on February 25? Feb 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 06 $38 $0 +1%
Nets vs. Clippers Jan 26 $38 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 39°C on January 23? Jan 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18? Jan 23 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $37 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $5,275 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $5,265 +$11 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $3,202 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $2,061 +$2 +0%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 04 $1,255 +$119 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4? Jan 03 $5,134 +$10 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 2? Jan 02 $1,060 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 2? Jan 02 $4,069 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 2? Jan 01 $5,124 +$5 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 December 15-21? Jan 01 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $41 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $39 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 99¢ $39 21d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 15°C or below on May 10 BUY No 100¢ $39 50d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $39 62d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $39 99d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma BUY No 100¢ $39 112d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on Marc BUY No 100¢ $39 119d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February BUY No 100¢ $38 121d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on February 25? BUY No 100¢ $38 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $38 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $38 153d
Nets vs. Clippers SELL Clippers 100¢ $38 153d
Nets vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 100¢ $38 153d
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 154d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 39°C on January 23? BUY No 100¢ $38 156d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18? BUY No 98¢ $37 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 13? BUY No 99¢ $37 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 173d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 5? BUY No 100¢ $3,514 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 5? BUY No 100¢ $564 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 5? BUY No 100¢ $499 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 5? BUY No 100¢ $559 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 5? BUY No 100¢ $140 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $5,265 174d
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4? SELL No 100¢ $3,202 174d
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4? SELL No 100¢ $2,063 174d
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $3,202 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.80 · official $43.80 (match) · 124 history records