Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0E 0x0ece…154c other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$114 (-52%) realized −$56 · open −$58

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 21L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$8

14 days−$8

30 days−$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	21	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	21	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -100% → late -100% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$5 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage

Net worth$58

Realized−$56

Unrealized−$58

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 21

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage82d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	0¢	0¢	$116	$58	−$58 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 19	$9	−$8	-97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	Apr 06	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?	Apr 06	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	Apr 06	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	Apr 06	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	Apr 06	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Larry Page be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on March 31?	Apr 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend	Mar 31	$5	−$5	-100%
Will "Hoppers" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?	Mar 31	$5	−$5	-100%
Will "A Great Awakening" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend	Mar 31	$5	−$5	-100%
Will "The Drama" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?	Mar 31	$5	−$5	-100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the highest grossing movie of t	Mar 31	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	BUY No	0¢	$96	2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$9	2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	BUY No	0¢	$20	2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?	BUY No	0¢	$5	82d
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on March 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on March 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on March 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on March 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on March 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Larry Page be richest person on March 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on March 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on March 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on March 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	82d
Will "Project Hail Mary" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	82d
Will "Hoppers" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	82d
Will "A Great Awakening" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	82d
Will "The Drama" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	82d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the highest grossing movie of t	BUY No	1¢	$5	82d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.00 · official $58.00 (match) · 38 history records