Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0ed0…f59f other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+12%) realized +$19 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$10
crypto 19% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 50% +8.3%
≤30d 4 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 50% +8.3%
≤90d 4 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 50% +8.3%
all 4 -19.8% -27.4% 50% 50% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 50% +8.3%
10% -34.3% 50% -2.1%
15% -40.7% 50% -11.6%
20% -46.5% 25% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 66¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-22%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.68 · official $35.68 (match) · 8 history records