Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ed1…efcb sports 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%87W / 88L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,248
7 days−$1,248
14 days−$1,248
30 days−$1,185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$90
crypto 14% +$149
world 4% −$7
other 1% −$19
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -43.4% -48.8% 35% 29% -53.3%
≤30d 64 -34.1% -40.4% 41% 30% -45.1%
≤90d 64 -34.1% -40.4% 41% 30% -45.1%
all 175 -4.8% -13.8% 50% 45% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 45% -7.2%
10% -22.1% 42% -16.0%
15% -29.6% 34% -24.2%
20% -36.5% 26% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$25 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses87 / 88
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage161d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Kings vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-6.5) Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$4 -8%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Kings vs. Oilers Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 220.5 Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5 Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 18 $118 −$61 -52%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $141 −$37 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 114.5 Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Kings vs. Ducks Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Brisbane International: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5 Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In G Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$4 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $92 +$45 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$21 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $67 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $93 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$28 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $58 +$50 +87%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $40 −$9 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $64 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $49 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $45 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $21 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $47 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $69 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $23 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $57 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 466 history records