Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ed9…11f0 crypto 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,681 (-16%) realized −$1,674 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%51W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$25
14 days−$100
30 days−$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$922
other 11% −$684
sports 10% −$220
world 2% −$54
finance 0% −$19
tech 0% −$18
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +63.7% +48.1% 38% 38% -11.6%
≤30d 78 +13.4% +2.6% 38% 38% -21.6%
≤90d 146 +0.5% -9.1% 34% 33% -27.9%
all 160 -2.1% -11.4% 32% 31% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 31% -26.6%
10% -19.9% 31% -33.6%
15% -27.6% 27% -40.1%
20% -34.7% 24% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$46 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$1,674
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses51 / 109
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 179
History coverage186d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $176 $171 −$5 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $113 +$74 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $147 −$30 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $124 −$124 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $5 +$19 +362%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $129 +$65 +50%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $23 −$1 -5%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $56 −$55 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $45 −$5 -11%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$16 +101%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026- Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$38 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$12 +90%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $93 +$71 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$23 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -94%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$37 +722%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$92 +1784%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$21 +202%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $116 −$92 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $46 +$57 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $46 +$38 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $131 −$109 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $417 −$307 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $459 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 27 $103 −$100 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $158 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $173 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $93 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 48¢ $25 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $195 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $129 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $80 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $40 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 34¢ $31 5d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $41 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-1 BUY 5¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.40 · official $323.40 (match) · 361 history records