Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0edd…6d55 crypto 50 markets active 6d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$221 (-6%) realized −$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$78
14 days+$78
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$299
other 14% +$16
sports 12% +$65
finance 3% −$7
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 50% +48.8%
≤30d 4 -33.3% -39.6% 25% 25% +22.2%
≤90d 50 -21.9% -29.3% 46% 34% -15.3%
all 50 -21.9% -29.3% 46% 34% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 34% -15.3%
10% -36.1% 18% -23.4%
15% -42.2% 12% -30.8%
20% -47.9% 10% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$30 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage78d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $100 +$98 +98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5 May 30 $23 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 8? May 08 $0 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 08 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 08 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 08 $87 −$22 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 08 $34 +$22 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 08 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 8? May 08 $4 −$2 -55%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 8? May 08 $57 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 08 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 08 $137 −$17 -12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 08 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 08 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 08 $101 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 08 $122 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 08 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 08 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 08 $122 +$43 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 08 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 08 $89 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 31 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 31 $43 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 31 $68 −$22 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 31 $150 −$136 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 31 $190 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 31 $110 +$72 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 31 $210 −$54 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 31 $100 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 31 $169 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 31 $88 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 31 $210 −$98 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $20 −$11 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $45 −$16 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $150 +$35 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $120 +$57 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $85 −$64 -75%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $150 +$26 +18%
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 26 $100 +$3 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 25 $27 −$3 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw SELL Felix Balshaw 99¢ $25 6d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw SELL Felix Balshaw 99¢ $173 6d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 50¢ $12 6d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 50¢ $78 6d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 50¢ $9 6d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 24¢ $21 6d
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 18d
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $13 18d
AD Ceuta FC vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 18d
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 30¢ $16 18d
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $23 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 40d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 8? SELL No 0¢ $0 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 40d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 8? BUY No 0¢ $0 40d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 8? BUY No 0¢ $0 40d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 8? BUY No 0¢ $0 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $62 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $56 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $34 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 40d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 8? SELL No 3¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $49 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 40d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 8? SELL No 54¢ $53 40d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 8? BUY No 57¢ $57 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records