Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0E 0x0ee1…268b sports 1024 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,111 (+5%) realized +$2,112 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%555W / 468L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$70
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,545
other 3% +$331
politics 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 56% -10.6%
≤90d 333 +5.2% -4.8% 55% 52% -5.9%
all 1023 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 48% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 48% -5.4%
10% -15.9% 46% -14.5%
15% -24.0% 45% -22.8%
20% -31.5% 44% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$41 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$2,112
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses555 / 468
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1023 / 1024
History coverage140d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1023 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$32 +63%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $51 +$45 +88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$55 +107%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $51 +$45 +88%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $51 +$51 +99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $51 +$19 +38%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $51 +$50 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $6 +$8 +116%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $51 +$47 +91%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $51 +$34 +66%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 28 $51 +$80 +156%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $2 $0 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $51 +$35 +69%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $51 +$45 +88%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $51 +$32 +63%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty May 24 $52 +$115 +224%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $51 +$26 +51%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $51 +$49 +95%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 18 $2 $0 +27%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $51 +$47 +91%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $35 +$32 +91%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 13 $51 +$43 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $51 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $45 9d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $6 9d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $51 9d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $32 10d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 10d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 89¢ $5 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $51 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $51 15d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $51 17d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $51 18d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $51 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $51 21d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 46¢ $51 23d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $51 24d
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $51 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 71¢ $51 25d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 50¢ $51 25d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 45¢ $6 26d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $49 26d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $2 26d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $51 27d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 38¢ $51 27d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 52¢ $51 28d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 36¢ $51 29d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $51 29d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $51 29d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 60¢ $51 30d
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) BUY Avalanche 37¢ $51 30d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $51 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.47 · official $49.47 (match) · 2809 history records