Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0ee2…55fa other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%36W / 48L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$3
world 27% −$4
sports 21% +$6
economics 8% −$1
politics 1% −$7
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 25 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 42 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 0% -9.6%
all 84 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses36 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage485d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+3%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $94 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $174 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $86 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $88 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $87 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $88 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $87 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $289 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $130 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $568 −$10 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $150 +$3 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $186 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $93 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $96 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $104 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $47 +$3 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $102 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $182 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $98 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $30 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $131 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $102 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $959 −$5 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $957 +$2 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1,052 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $959 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $959 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $962 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $251 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $250 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Feb 01 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $86 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $37 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $49 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $35 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $94 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $86 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $86 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $86 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $86 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $61 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $77 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $11 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $88 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $88 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $44 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $44 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $88 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $80 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $80 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $6 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $88 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.67 · official $88.66 (match) · 349 history records