Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ee3…0a60 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+3%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$2
other 22% +$1
politics 9% +$14
crypto 5% +$1
economics 3% −$2
sports 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -9.1%
all 32 +24.9% +13.0% 47% 6% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 6% -7.2%
10% +2.2% 6% -16.1%
15% -7.7% 6% -24.2%
20% -16.7% 3% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage465d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $46 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 +$1 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $28 +$2 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 +$1 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $1 +$14 +1076%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 29 $1 $0 -28%
Will Livre win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 19 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $14 $0 +3%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $13 $0 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $3 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $42 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $17 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $6 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $43 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $44 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $34 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $40 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $44 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $43 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $42 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $42 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 36¢ $13 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 36¢ $17 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $28 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $2 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $16 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $18 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records