Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0ee4…3c59 sports 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%144W / 154L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$59
14 days−$141
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$98
other 7% −$26
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -32.5% -38.9% 21% 21% -40.4%
≤30d 75 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 32% -28.3%
≤90d 149 +8.3% -2.0% 43% 39% -7.3%
all 298 -1.8% -11.1% 48% 35% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 35% -8.9%
10% -19.6% 27% -17.6%
15% -27.4% 25% -25.5%
20% -34.5% 22% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses144 / 154
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)298 / 300
History coverage195d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland New Zealand 55¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will England win? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $3 +$7 +270%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $82 −$30 -36%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $12 −$8 -70%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $11 −$1 -6%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $82 −$12 -15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 −$24 -76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -55%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +250%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +276%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$6 +40%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 10 $5 +$15 +276%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $42 −$41 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Qatar Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Indonesia Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 55¢ $6 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL New Zealand 52¢ $31 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 90¢ $54 2h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 16¢ $3 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 47¢ $5 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 8¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 50¢ $3 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 50¢ $2 2d
Will England win? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 50¢ $10 3d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 27¢ $3 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 53¢ $52 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 82¢ $17 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 82¢ $7 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 82¢ $25 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 82¢ $33 3d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China SELL Hong Kong, China 12¢ $4 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria SELL Nigeria 36¢ $11 3d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 39¢ $12 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 38¢ $11 3d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 61¢ $10 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 61¢ $2 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 31¢ $30 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 70¢ $7 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 70¢ $56 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 70¢ $2 4d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 70¢ $5 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 31¢ $6 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 BUY 1¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 752 history records