Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ee5…e798 sports 915 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,912 (-2%) realized −$4,043 · open −$869
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%240W / 722L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day54.6pace
Fees−$3,550est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$9,537
other 0% +$12
economics 0% −$34
crypto 0% −$10
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -57.7% -61.7% 17% 17% -16.5%
≤30d 594 -18.0% -25.8% 27% 26% -5.8%
≤90d 962 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 24% -17.5%
all 962 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 24% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 24% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -44.2% 23% -25.4%
15% -49.5% 22% -32.6%
20% -54.5% 20% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -49% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$317 vs −$127 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,210
Realized−$4,043
Unrealized−$869
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses240 / 722
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$3,550
Open positions5
Markets (closed)962 / 915
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$243
Trades / day54.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 962 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Talia Gibson 55¢ 90¢ $565 $915 +$350 (+62%)
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Taylah Preston 36¢ 30¢ $237 $192 −$45 (-19%)
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jack Pinnington Jones 41¢ 28¢ $150 $101 −$49 (-33%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 29¢ 0¢ $883 $2 −$881 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 15¢ 0¢ $244 $1 −$243 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -781%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 4 Winne Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In G Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Brute - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $389 −$389 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $249 −$249 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $221 −$221 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $374 −$374 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qu Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ENCE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $470 −$470 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $35 −$38 -110%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $176 −$176 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 16¢ $12 25m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 43¢ $15 27m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 42¢ $229 27m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 72¢ $328 29m
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 39¢ $229 39m
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 41¢ $153 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $296 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $217 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $388 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 15¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 15¢ $205 2h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 99¢ $32 2h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $20 2h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 34¢ $561 2h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 34¢ $280 2h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 36¢ $306 2h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 12¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $65 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 20¢ $266 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 3¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 5¢ $62 4h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 100¢ $2,061 4h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 8¢ $1 4h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 20¢ $2 4h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 20¢ $3 4h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 49¢ $8 4h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 49¢ $9 4h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 42¢ $448 5h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 16¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,210.04 · official $1,210.04 (match) · 3500 history records