trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? | Jul 12 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Jul 10 | $108 | −$108 | -100% |
| Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? | Jul 09 | $364 | +$186 | +51% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 26 | $906 | −$677 | -75% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? | Apr 28 | $1,634 | +$723 | +44% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 24 | $250 | −$210 | -84% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 24 | $2,565 | −$1,398 | -54% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 22 | $233 | −$189 | -81% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 22 | $15 | −$14 | -93% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 21 | $826 | −$56 | -7% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 17 | $2,863 | +$334 | +12% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Apr 01 | $438 | −$257 | -59% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Apr 01 | $358 | +$16,974 | +4738% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 29 | $360 | +$2,610 | +725% |
| Will Chrystia Freeland be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Part | Mar 10 | $29 | −$23 | -80% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | Mar 09 | $123 | +$19 | +16% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 07 | $27 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? | Mar 01 | $544 | +$477 | +88% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Feb 27 | $374 | +$779 | +208% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 19 | +127.2% | +105.6% | 47% | 42% | +59.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +105.6% | 42% | +59.6% |
| 10% | +85.9% | 32% | +44.4% |
| 15% | +67.9% | 32% | +30.4% |
| 20% | +51.5% | 26% | +17.6% |