Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0E 0x0eea…641f other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$509 (+36%) realized +$512 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate89%16W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$91
sports 46% +$404
world 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +50.0% +35.7% 100% 100% +35.7%
≤30d 2 +89.3% +71.3% 100% 100% +67.3%
≤90d 12 +25.9% +13.9% 92% 42% +39.8%
all 18 +11.9% +1.3% 89% 28% +35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 28% +35.9%
10% -8.4% 22% +22.9%
15% -17.3% 22% +11.0%
20% -25.4% 11% +0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$14 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.46 per $1 lost it wins $18.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized+$512
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses16 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage172d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $428 $425 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $192 +$96 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $153 +$197 +129%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $79 +$121 +152%
Pistons vs. Magic May 09 $249 +$51 +21%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $28 −$27 -98%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 21 $11 $0 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition Apr 21 $13 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 21 $15 +$1 +10%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 26 $11 $0 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Jimmy Lai released by January 31? Feb 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31? Feb 02 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Jan 09 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.25 · official $425.25 (match) · 36 history records