Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0eea…f37c sports 797 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$725 (-1%) realized −$595 · open −$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%453W / 337L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$531est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$34
14 days−$446
30 days−$2,229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$3,397
politics 13% +$3,244
other 5% +$123
culture 2% −$404
crypto 2% −$741
world 2% −$57
finance 1% −$24
tech 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.3% -9.8% 63% 60% -8.3%
≤30d 113 -21.1% -28.6% 49% 45% -25.9%
≤90d 429 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 51% -15.5%
all 790 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 51% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 51% -10.5%
10% -23.6% 41% -19.1%
15% -31.0% 30% -26.9%
20% -37.8% 21% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$71 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$642
Realized−$595
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses453 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$531
Open positions7
Markets (closed)790 / 797
History coverage236d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $422 $352 −$70 (-17%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 57¢ 34¢ $125 $74 −$51 (-41%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 57¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $60 $38 −$22 (-37%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 36¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$52 +128%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 +$13 +14%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $89 +$46 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $112 +$22 +20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $45 −$28 -62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $122 +$68 +56%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $162 +$5 +3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $147 +$39 +26%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $112 +$22 +20%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 18 $71 −$36 -51%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $107 +$34 +32%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $71 +$52 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$44 -74%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $71 +$26 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +21%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $61 −$49 -81%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $44 +$9 +20%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 16 $46 −$30 -66%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$68 +167%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $363 −$75 -20%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $121 +$31 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $24 +$4 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$21 +21%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $56 −$44 -78%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $71 +$46 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $353 −$275 -78%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $71 +$35 +50%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $67 +$43 +65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$49 -80%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $121 +$21 +17%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $172 −$172 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $122 +$123 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $71 +$29 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $240 +$19 +8%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $62 +$31 +51%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $61 +$30 +49%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $61 +$19 +31%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $186 +$94 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $46 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $81 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $58 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $71 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $93 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 18h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $78 19h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $90 42h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $89 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $134 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $112 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $45 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 95¢ $129 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $61 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 56¢ $60 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $61 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 88¢ $131 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 67¢ $101 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 34¢ $36 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $61 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ $185 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 72¢ $101 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $46 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $61 3d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 99¢ $134 3d
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) SELL New York Liberty 31¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $641.79 · official $641.79 (match) · 2090 history records