Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0eec…e587 weather 555 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,227 (-5%) realized −$2,191 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate72%391W / 153L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$21
14 days−$754
30 days−$974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 28% −$431
sports 28% −$828
other 21% −$262
finance 11% −$850
world 10% +$96
crypto 1% −$221
politics 1% −$5
tech 0% −$37
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.8% -6.1% 57% 50% -4.3%
≤30d 40 +33.8% +21.0% 58% 38% -53.2%
≤90d 544 +10.1% -0.4% 72% 20% -14.9%
all 544 +10.1% -0.4% 72% 20% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 20% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 14% -23.0%
15% -18.6% 11% -30.5%
20% -26.6% 9% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$48 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized−$2,191
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses391 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions11
Markets (closed)544 / 555
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$77
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 65¢ 84¢ $89 $114 +$26 (+29%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "SAVE Act" or "Save America Act" during June 24 Rally? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 89¢ 15¢ $80 $14 −$67 (-83%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $10 $6 −$5 (-44%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 19¢ 93¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+389%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 20¢ 94¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+368%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 50¢ 92¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+83%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-63%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 24, 2026? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 24 $1 $0 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24? Jun 23 $4 $0 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $12 +$8 +65%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $206 +$5 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -24%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $74 +$33 +45%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $9 −$5 -50%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +117%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $38 +$20 +54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$256 +999%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $0 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -78%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $26 −$7 -25%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $24 +$13 +57%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will President Trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in Jun 02 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 31 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 28 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $1 +$9 +900%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $5 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $80 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 22? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $0 +$6 +14076%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 17? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ma May 22 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17? May 22 $9 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 17? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 17? May 22 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 17? May 22 $36 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 62¢ $1 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 48¢ $12 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 49¢ $13 14h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24? SELL No 73¢ $0 14h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 64¢ $1 14h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24? SELL No 62¢ $1 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24? BUY No 65¢ $1 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24? BUY No 63¢ $1 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24? BUY No 62¢ $1 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 16h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 17h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 17h
Will Trump say "SAVE Act" or "Save America Act" during June 24 Rally? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 17h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 56¢ $1 26h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 60¢ $1 26h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 60¢ $10 26h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 49¢ $6 39h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 46¢ $1 41h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 41¢ $1 42h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 41¢ $1 42h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 38¢ $2 43h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.95 · official $333.96 (match) · 3500 history records