Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eee…eea6 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$25
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$18
politics 24% −$27
sports 21% −$13
crypto 9% −$9
world 6% +$1
economics 5% −$1
finance 2% −$4
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 58 -0.4% -9.9% 7% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 104 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 1% -10.0%
all 134 -0.7% -10.1% 15% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 114
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage108d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $92 −$2 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $130 −$3 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $182 −$2 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $613 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $215 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $507 −$3 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $158 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $187 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $294 −$2 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 05 $112 −$4 -3%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $157 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $97 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $48 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $62 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 2h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $39 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $18 17h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $20 17h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $54 18h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $54 24h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 25h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 33h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $37 33h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $37 38h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $43 39h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $43 43h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 89¢ $40 43h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $41 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $61 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $17 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $15 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $59 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $59 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $60 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.59 · official $48.59 (match) · 567 history records