Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ef2…8f95 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$1
other 22% +$1
politics 10% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -8.3% -17.0% 33% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 13 -1.9% -11.2% 31% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -1.9% -11.2% 31% 0% -9.2%
all 33 -2.4% -11.7% 21% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage256d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -25%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $94 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $135 +$4 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $3 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 20 $4 −$2 -67%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $2 $0 +20%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $7 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Oct 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 13 $23 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $16 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $16 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $42 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $42 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $42 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $42 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $36 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $6 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $42 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $2 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $36 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $22 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $15 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 107 history records