Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0ef2…a060 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$644 (+28%) realized +$1,036 · open −$392
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$119
sports 22% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +36.5% +23.5% 63% 63% +21.9%
≤30d 27 +36.5% +23.5% 63% 63% +21.9%
≤90d 27 +36.5% +23.5% 63% 63% +21.9%
all 27 +36.5% +23.5% 63% 63% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 63% +21.9%
10% +11.6% 63% +10.2%
15% +0.9% 63% -0.4%
20% -9.0% 44% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +110% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$38 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$1,036
Unrealized−$392
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ $400 $9 −$391 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$94 +47%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $71 +$52 +73%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -11%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$85 +550%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$40 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$45 +114%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $156 +$85 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $104 +$52 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 23h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 23h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 47h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $71 47h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 2d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 2d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 4d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $25 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $40 4d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $156 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $104 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $68 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.79 · official $107.80 (match) · 59 history records