Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ef3…df7f sports 548 markets active 4h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,321 (-10%) realized −$3,326 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%171W / 374L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$324est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$308
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$2,702
other 9% −$700
crypto 1% −$92
politics 0% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -26.1% -33.1% 26% 25% +3.6%
≤30d 81 -32.7% -39.1% 23% 22% -8.9%
≤90d 236 -23.8% -31.0% 28% 27% -17.1%
all 545 -18.8% -26.6% 31% 31% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 31% -19.8%
10% -33.6% 29% -27.5%
15% -40.0% 27% -34.5%
20% -45.9% 24% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$40 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$3,326
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses171 / 374
Est. fees paid−$324
Open positions3
Markets (closed)545 / 548
History coverage243d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$44 +88%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$29 -56%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $148 +$330 +223%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 25 $36 +$84 +234%
Piracicaba: Wilson Leite vs Filipe Bullamah Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Madison Keys Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Kayla Day Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina Jun 25 $21 +$30 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$86 +275%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$48 -93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $133 −$50 -37%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $51 −$35 -68%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $57 +$73 +128%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $76 +$36 +47%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $53 +$97 +182%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $51 +$247 +482%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$4 +374%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 4h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 6h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 9¢ $2 6h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 17¢ $26 6h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $428 6h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 11¢ $49 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Philadelphia Phillies 10¢ $49 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 17¢ $47 9h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 21¢ $51 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 17¢ $26 14h
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas 64¢ $59 14h
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas 27¢ $26 15h
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas 35¢ $61 15h
Piracicaba: Wilson Leite vs Filipe Bullamah BUY Filipe Bullamah 2¢ $1 15h
Piracicaba: Wilson Leite vs Filipe Bullamah BUY Filipe Bullamah 3¢ $10 16h
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas 6¢ $10 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $52 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Madison Keys BUY McCartney Kessler 12¢ $20 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Yi Zhou 16¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 20h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 2¢ $5 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina SELL Elena Pridankina 40¢ $51 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina BUY Elena Pridankina 16¢ $21 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Tyra Caterina Grant BUY Harmony Tan 9¢ $2 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Kayla Day BUY Katarzyna Kawa 11¢ $15 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $38 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.15 · official $170.15 (match) · 1481 history records