Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:43:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ef3…f1a5 other 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,324 (-1%) realized −$1,325 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate25%30W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$759per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$46
other 41% −$180
sports 6% −$1,078
culture 4% −$4
world 2% −$32
crypto 2% +$3
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 47 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 120 -5.7% -14.7% 25% 8% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 8% -10.9%
10% -22.9% 8% -19.4%
15% -30.3% 8% -27.2%
20% -37.2% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,105) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized−$1,325
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses30 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage147d
Avg bet$759
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $665 $666 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $293 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $269 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $305 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $3,367 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,794 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,883 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $2,400 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,096 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,924 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $468 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $871 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,003 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $2,900 −$4 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,234 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 21 $574 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,547 −$4 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,251 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,195 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $2,337 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 01 $562 +$2 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,243 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3,558 −$4 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $176 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-21? Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Senators vs. Flyers Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $203 3m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $203 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $293 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $293 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $269 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $269 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $305 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $305 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $203 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $204 9d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $665 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $787 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $788 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,063 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,065 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,152 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,154 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,132 15d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,134 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,173 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,174 16d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 19d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,139 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $835 21d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $836 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,236 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,238 23d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,129 23d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 24d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $666.31 · official $666.31 (match) · 378 history records