Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eff…6fa5 crypto 665 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$760 (-6%) realized −$760 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%369W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day93.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,740
7 days−$1,515
14 days−$815
30 days−$809
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$809
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 363 -25.5% -32.6% 52% 22% -37.5%
≤30d 663 -5.4% -14.5% 56% 38% -15.0%
≤90d 663 -5.4% -14.5% 56% 38% -15.0%
all 663 -5.4% -14.5% 56% 38% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 38% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 34% -23.2%
15% -30.1% 32% -30.6%
20% -37.0% 30% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$760
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses369 / 294
Open positions2
Markets (closed)663 / 665
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day93.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $86 +$34 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$18 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.65 · official $17.98 (match) · 3500 history records