Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f01…ed38 other 25 markets active 17h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$56 (+4%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$11
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$42
sports 9% +$12
crypto 7% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.1% -46.7% 43% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 24 -4.5% -13.6% 54% 25% -6.0%
≤90d 24 -4.5% -13.6% 54% 25% -6.0%
all 24 -4.5% -13.6% 54% 25% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 25% -6.0%
10% -21.9% 21% -15.0%
15% -29.4% 21% -23.2%
20% -36.4% 17% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.81 per $1 lost it wins $4.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage12d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301 +$1 +0%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $160 +$5 +3%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -77%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +191%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $175 +$15 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 +$6 +12%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $160 +$2 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 16h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 78¢ $89 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 16h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $150 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $70 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 8d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $100 9d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $1.02 (match) · 73 history records