Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

0F 0x0f04…00da crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$90 (+10%) realized +$107 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate43%6W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day10.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+1.2%	-8.5%	43%	36%	-15.2%
≤30d	14	+1.2%	-8.5%	43%	36%	-15.2%
≤90d	14	+1.2%	-8.5%	43%	36%	-15.2%
all	14	+1.2%	-8.5%	43%	36%	-15.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.5%	36%	-15.2%
10%	-17.2%	29%	-23.3%
15%	-25.2%	21%	-30.7%
20%	-32.5%	14%	-37.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -44% → late +47% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$39 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.86 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$163

Realized+$107

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses6 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 18

History coverage3d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day10.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	76¢	50¢	$100	$65	−$35 (-35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	29¢	50¢	$25	$44	+$19 (+74%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 22	$52	−$22	-42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 22	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Jun 22	$51	+$13	+26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$31	+$184	+596%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$35	+$16	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 20	$26	−$25	-94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 20	$50	−$50	-99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$36	+71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$100	+$12	+12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 19	$79	+$6	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	SELL Down	11¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$101	1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$26	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	SELL No	69¢	$64	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$26	42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	11¢	$10	42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY No	53¢	$51	42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	42h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$31	42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$35	42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	14¢	$31	42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$87	42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Down	54¢	$36	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Up	55¢	$49	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$26	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$27	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.56 · official $162.56 (match) · 33 history records