Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f04…2aa7 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-8%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%31W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$63
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$11
crypto 42% −$23
sports 3% −$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 42% -32.6%
≤30d 62 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 42% -21.5%
≤90d 62 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 42% -21.5%
all 62 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 42% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 42% -21.5%
10% -24.8% 32% -29.1%
15% -32.1% 26% -35.9%
20% -38.7% 19% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses31 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $15 −$4 -24%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +190%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +373%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $66 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.14 · official $73.14 (match) · 154 history records