trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 100% | 0% | -5.8% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +1.3% | -8.4% | 80% | 20% | -5.0% |
| all | 17 | -4.6% | -13.7% | 76% | 18% | -5.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.7% | 18% | -5.3% |
| 10% | -21.9% | 0% | -14.4% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 0% | -22.6% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 0% | -30.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 54¢ | 56¢ | $59 | $61 | +$3 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | Jun 01 | $132 | +$4 | +3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | May 27 | $55 | +$3 | +5% |
| Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? | May 22 | $49 | +$3 | +6% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | May 19 | $44 | +$5 | +12% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 14 | $1 | −$1 | -53% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | May 14 | $5 | −$1 | -10% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | May 14 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | May 01 | $20 | +$2 | +9% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Apr 16 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in | Apr 13 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Apr 08 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $5 | +$1 | +17% |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Apr 01 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 31 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | Mar 09 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | Mar 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |