Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0f07…ffc8 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$32
politics 19% −$6
sports 6% +$29
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.6% 13% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 107 +0.4% -9.2% 11% 9% -9.6%
all 110 +0.3% -9.2% 11% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 9% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 9% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 8% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)110 / 114
History coverage93d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $166 $166 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 48¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $313 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $118 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $352 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 23 $322 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $276 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $288 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $284 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $568 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $292 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $292 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $280 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $290 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $287 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $268 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $268 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $290 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $560 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $487 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 21h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 22h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 26h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $166 26h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $13 27h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $9 27h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 42h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 46h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 8d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 18d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 19d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 19d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 20d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $65 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.36 · official $286.36 (match) · 326 history records