Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f09…1700 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$14
14 days−$13
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$18
world 25% −$3
tech 25% −$4
sports 23% −$13
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.9% -21.2% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +21.4% +9.9% 50% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 22 +7.9% -2.4% 59% 14% -9.7%
all 39 -11.1% -19.6% 51% 18% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 18% -9.8%
10% -27.3% 15% -18.4%
15% -34.3% 13% -26.3%
20% -40.7% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage460d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $3,161 −$4 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 26 $3,133 −$4 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 26 $3,135 −$3 -0%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $4 $0 +4%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $4 $0 +4%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 08 $1 +$6 +588%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? May 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will paiN Gaming win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? Apr 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 24 $3 +$3 +84%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-26? Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19? Feb 23 $3 +$1 +16%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? Feb 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $2,870 −$3 -0%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-01-28? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Santos FC end in a draw? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 1AM ET Jan 06 $2 +$2 +96%
Spread: Rams (-1.5) Dec 22 $2 +$2 +96%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? Dec 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US military action on Yemen by Friday? Dec 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the PPC win 3 seats in the next Canadian Election? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on April 11? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield be above 4.8% on April 11? Apr 16 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,157 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,161 2h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,129 3h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,133 4h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $3,132 4h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $3,135 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 9d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 96¢ $4 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $4 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 9d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 100¢ $3 10d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 98¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 16d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 98¢ $3 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 14¢ $1 23d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 99¢ $5 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY No 9¢ $2 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? BUY No 98¢ $4 36d
Will paiN Gaming win IEM Atlanta 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 44d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 44d
Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 99¢ $1 44d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 63d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY No 77¢ $5 76d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 77d
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? BUY No 73¢ $2 77d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL No 83¢ $6 94d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY No 45¢ $3 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records